[Originally a Twitter thread.]

Here is my personal overinterpretation of the videos of Hu Jintao’s removal from the Great Hall of the People during the 20th Party Congress, with a focus on the role of other Standing Committee members in the incident:

I think there’s no chance that Xi intended for Hu to be removed or is pleased that it happened. Xi benefits from maintaining a facade of unified support for his decisions, especially those that break with norms. When Xi wants to take down rivals or subject them to public criticism, he stage-manages every detail and emphasizes the trappings of regularized and legal processes. When a target defies Xi’s choreography - like when CMC member Zhang Yang killed himself before trial - they are vilified for it.

It’s plausible that Hu was simply mentally frail and confused. A video from earlier in the Congress seems to show Hu’s attention wandering, prompting Xi to nudge him to sit down. But it’s also clear that the focus of contention was something in Hu’s folder, which probably contained lists of Central Committee members and associated personnel assignments.

Neither infirmity nor disagreement over personnel are satisfying explanations on their own. Hu presumably should have known about the decisions in advance and logically should’ve long since resigned himself to the futility of fighting against Xi’s current. My best guess is that both played a role: perhaps Hu misunderstood or misremembered a decision that he had already been informed of.

When it comes to the video itself, I’m most interested in the actions of the other Standing Committee members:

Li Zhanshu is adamant that Hu not regain possession of his folder. The two jockey over the folder, but both pause to listen after Xi summons an aide and issues directions. The aide then begins to collect Hu’s possessions in preparation to assist/compel Hu to exit.

Strikingly, Li Zhanshu then refuses to allow the aide to give Hu the folder, even after everyone has heard Xi’s instructions and even though the aide appears set on removing Hu. Eventually Li literally passes the folder behind Hu’s back to the aide, who clutches it in one hand while escorting Hu out. Hu tries to extract a paper from the folder while the aide is propping him up, but the aide motions toward the exit, presumably telling Hu he can review the papers outside the hall.

I found the body language of participants interesting. Usually I don’t like pop psychology attempts to analyze people based on tiny sample sizes, but now it’s me doing the pop psychologizing, so it’s okay ;)

Hu was mostly surrounded by a “clutch of wooden men, frozen and dumbfounded, witnessing it all in stony silence,” as Wu Guoguang said. Since we all watch this from overhead video, it’s easy to forget that many of these people could not even see what was happening, but chose to stare fixedly ahead.

Two people in this scene exude authority, in opposite ways: Xi and Wang Huning. In formal events Xi usually portrays himself as the implacable and somewhat regal master of the situation, and he attempts to maintain this aura here. His authority is evident as everyone stops and listens when he speaks, but no one dares look at him.

Wang Huning is the most striking. He is the only person with little concern for the glare of the cameras, and carries himself with an easy assurance, given the extraordinary context of the situation. Everyone else would rather be elsewhere but Wang appears almost to want to insert himself into the situation and take control. Many have noted that Wang pulls on Li’s coat to motion him to remain seated. I think Wang also snaps off a quick directive to Kong Shaoxun to accompany Hu out of the hall, although it’s more difficult to tell.

[AP reporter] Dake Kang identified the badged aide as Kong Shaoxun, deputy director of the Central Committee General Office, one of the most politically sensitive organizations within the CCP. Some have speculated the other aide is a Xi bodyguard. Maybe the one on the left?

I’ve changed my opinion of Wang Huning over the years – not because of this video, but the video happens to comport with my view. I think in 2012 I was overly dismissive of Wang as an egghead and a weathervane. Intellectuals don’t always easily command authority and Wang has served so many different leaders that I thought he might simply be a tool, a clever rationalizer. But now I put more weight on the possibility that he is also an able administrator with independent influence, even if he does not have the power base of a typical politician.

That’s it for my wild speculation. In some ways it’s crazy to put so much weight on an incident with so many ambiguities, but we so rarely get a candid look at leaders that I’ll give myself a pass!