[Originally a Twitter thread.]
I later wrote a full-length piece about this and related issues here.
Scattered thoughts/speculation on Rocket Force purge:
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New Commander Wang Houbin isn’t even an alternate member of the Central Committee, while new Political Commissar Xu Xisheng is a full member. Even PLARF Chief of Staff Sun Jinming, years younger than Wang, is an alternate.
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It’s interesting that Wang appears to have had few primary command positions in his recent career, and instead mostly staff officer roles and deputy commander slots.
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It will be tough for Wang to set the agenda for the Rocket Force given all that, and the fact that the force will be reeling under these investigations for some time to come. Maybe a safe pair of hands but not a promising time for bold organizational initiatives for the RF in the next couple years.
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Given that Wang and Xu are outsiders to the service, there will be a heavy burden on whoever’s left at headquarters who’s untainted by prior associations. If Chief of Staff Sun escapes scrutiny, it’ll be a trial by fire but also maybe an opportunity for him to distinguish himself. (Speculating wildly!)
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From a CCP governance perspective, I think these kinds of periodic, mid-level purges/investigations/regulatory crackdowns, which emerge in somewhat random pockets of the party-state, are a routine feature of the system. They flow from factors like internal opacity and secrecy, the crucial but subjective nature of political rectitude and loyalty, the opportunity to target rivals by calling that into question, and incentives for Xi to monitor and periodically disrupt personal networks within politically sensitive groups.
These factors are present in varying degrees and combine in different ways in different parts of the system, but IMO we should expect periodic clusters of contained purges like this in general proportion to the political sensitivity of the positions or organization. (It’s dangerous to be an MPS Vice Minster)
So I don’t think these indicate any particular warning sign for Xi’s control over the system - instead I think they’re a feature of the governance system he’s put in place. I’m sure he’s unhappy about whatever the investigators have dug up, but it’s a byproduct of the system…
I think a sign of potential deeper political and administrative problems would be if people who are in charge of personnel selection and vetting are themselves removed. these are the people Xi probably trusts more than the people entrusted with administering the nuclear arsenal, ironically enough. So when the investigators come for the CC Organization Department, the CC or CMC General Offices, that would suggest to me more politically sensitive internal problems.
This is all speculative and is a structural way of looking at it, and of course the individuals involved and specific circumstances matter a lot, but are hard to know!